Below is a transcript of an information session held on the new voting system.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Zeta shouts “I will be commencing an information session on the Instant Runoff Voting system presently in the Election Analysis Lab (the ‘park’ of the day). Come if you are curious about the voting system that will be used to select this election’s mayor.” (Public-shout)
\nSHOUT: 26 folks heard that.
\nAzure yips, “Dr. Dern.”
\nDragoncat has arrived.
\nDragoncat waves.
\nBeltrami steps off of the floating disk that carried her up.
\nBeltrami has arrived.
\nBeltrami smiles and waves hello!
\nAzure waves to Dragoncat and Beltrami.
\nPing steps off of the floating disk that carried her up.
\nPing has arrived.
\nPing bounces in.
\nRoofus_roo steps off of the floating disk that carried her up.
\nRoofus_roo has arrived.
\nBeltrami bows to Ping and Azure.
\nBeltrami grins!
\n[Beltrami just looked in your direction! (female Balloon Rabbit)]
\nAzure bows to Ping and Roofus_Roo.
\nPing climbs up a bookshelf to be able to see from above, for a change.
\nZeta sits, statue-like and cold, surrounded by monitors.
\nBeltrami grins at Dragoncat and picks up Roofus.
\nSally steps off of the floating disk that carried her up.
\nSally has arrived.
\nBeltrami waves to Sally!
\nSally chirps! :>
\nYou say, “I hope more individuals arrive. However, in the worse case scenario I will still make a transcript of this session available for general perusal.”
\nZeta speaks into her wrist.
\nDragoncat nods.
\nZeta shouts “IRV information session beginning now. Type ‘park’ to join us. Come if you have any confusion or questions concerning the new voting system that will be used to elect the mayor.” (Public-shout)
\nSHOUT: 26 folks heard that.
\nYou say, “120 seconds.”
\nSkyler steps off of the floating disk that carried him up.
\nSkyler has arrived.
\nBeltrami waves to Skyler!
\nAli’s vardo has arrived.
\nSkyler says, “Hello! :)”
\nAli has arrived.
\nBeltrami nods to Ali.
\nAli says, “Hello, Beltrami.”
\nAli sits on a cushion on her wago steps.
\nZeta nods coolly, “This probably constitutes an adequate population. Before we begin: This is an apolitical event discussing voting methodology rather than the specifics of a particular election, including ours. It goes without saying that this is not a venue for active campaigning. I believe such a warning to be unnecessary, of course.”
\nYou say, “But I optimize for low probability, high risk scenarios. With that disposed of:”
\nSally waves her wing. “What happens to poeple who campaign?”
\nJaxen steps off of the floating disk that carried him up.
\nJaxen has arrived.
\nAli says, “Also disposed of.”
\nZeta nods. “SED assassination. And not the typical benign, Sora treatment.”
\nBeltrami walks up besides Zeta, folds her arms, and glares at the audience.
\nBunnyHugger says, “Would you like a sternlooker, Beltrami?”
\nAli’s wagon isn’t even displaying campaign decor.
\nChitter says, “Don’t think she needs one.”
\nSkyler chuckles. “So! You were starting off, Zeta.”
\nPyralis steps off of the floating disk that carried her up.
\nPyralis has arrived.
\nBeltrami winds her hand two large loops and pats her department ribbon.
\nZeta brushes her tail, “Welcome to the IRV information session. I’m sure that this will likely be review for many of you. However, as the purpose of this session is educational, please don’t hesitate to ask questions when necessary. There will be an open Q\/A session at the end for longer concerns.”
\nSally tries to look contrite. It’s an effort for her.
\nYou say, “But if anything I say is unclear, please interrupt. I will elucidate the point if it can be done in a timely fashion.”
\nYou say, “I will begin with a brief explanation of the problems with the old First Past The Post (FPTP) algorithm, give a brief introduction to IRV, including the salient advantages over the previous, show a step-by-step walkthrough of a simple election, introduce an actual practice polls using the actual voting system that we will vote in, and conclude with a Q\/A session.”
\nYou say, “With the agenda delineated, I will begin with an explanation of first past the post and its problems. Unless there are already questions?”
\nBunnyHugger shakes her head.
\nZeta nods coolly, “In that case: First past the post is easy to understand: Each voter votes for a single candidate. The votes are tallied and the recipient of the most votes is declared the victor. This approach is easy and intuitive. However, it suffers from some obvious problems.”
\nYou say, “Most obviously, if some set candidates on the ballot are very similar, they can ‘split the vote’, putting them at a disadvantage to less popular candidates with smaller but firmly controlled niche support. Let us consider a brief example to illustrate the problem.”
\nZeta taps her wristtop and highlights a monitor display on the wall. “In this example say A and B are candidates running in an election. You may think of them as ‘Alice’ and ‘Bob’ if the anthropomorphization of metasyntatic variables aides your comprehension. A is quite popular and has 60% of the populace’s support. B has a very different, less popular platform and is supported by only 40% of the population.”
\nYou say, “If the election were held at this point, the results would look as follows:”
\nZeta switches the slide, revealing a bar graph.<\/p>\n
<Quote-O-Matic: Zeta>
\nA: 60% [Winner.]
\nB: 40%
\n<Quote-O-Matic Finished><\/p>\n
You say, “Trivial. However, assume that B has access to a sophisticated cloning facility and a sample of A’s DNA obtained from saliva harvested from a baby kissed on the campaign trail. B creates A’, a perfect clone of A who enters the election. As A and A’ have identical platforms they split their support between them.”
\nZeta switches the slide again. “The results after the introduction of the clone would look as follows:”<\/p>\n
<Quote-O-Matic: Zeta>
\nA: 30%
\nA’: 30%
\nB: 40% [Winner.]
\n<Quote-O-Matic Finished><\/p>\n
Ping giggles.
\nAli hee.
\nJaxen grins.
\nYou say, “Even though a majority of people prefer a platform similar to A\/A’s, B wins the election. If either A or A’ weren’t in the election, the other would win. But by both running, they effectively hand the election to B. This is known as the ‘spoiler effect’. Is everyone comfortable with this example and in agreement that it is an undesirable outcome?”
\nBunnyHugger nods.
\nDragoncat nods.
\nBunnyHugger says, “I am.”
\nAli grins.
\nYou say, “Although the example here involves the application of humorously nefarious biotechnology, it is not uncommon in practice. Popular ideas are, definitionally, popular and as a result often represented by more than one candidate.”
\nJaxen nods.
\nZeta nods and continues then, face as blank and empty as a doll’s. “There are other problems with FPTP, many of which are derivative effects of this one. Most notably, voters will be reluctant to vote for their true, first choice if they feel they don’t stand a chance of winning, to avoid ‘throwing their vote away’. Over time, this often leads to two party systems. Or three party systems in which two parties effectively continually keep the third in power.”
\nBunnyHugger nods.
\nYou say, “Instant-Runoff Voting, or IRV, avoids these problems. In IRV, rather than selecting a single candidate, one ranks the candidates in order of preference. If your #1 choice is unpopular in one round, your #2 choice may still count and so forth. Voters can vote for their true first choice without throwing their vote away. Candidates can run freely without as great a concern that they will spoil the election for someone else. Don’t worry if it’s not immediately clear how it achieves this. We are about to run through a demonstration that should make it clear.”
\nYou say, “I will now explain how IRV works in words. Then we will see a simple example. Then, we will run one or two sample votes to familiarize ourselves with Master Morticon’s interface. Finally, I’ll open the floor to questions and discussion.”
\nZeta looks over the audience. “Here is a quick algorithmic explanation of IRV. Forgive me for reading my slide.”<\/p>\n
<Quote-O-Matic: Zeta>
\n1. In IRV, voters fill out ballots by ranking the choices in order of their preference.<\/p>\n
2. In each round of counting, the ballots are counted by adding up the number of #1 votes each candidate receives.<\/p>\n
3. If a candidate has a simple majority (>50%) of the #1 votes, they are the winner and we stop.<\/p>\n
4. Otherwise, the choice(s) with the fewest number of #1 votes are stricken from all ballots. If a ballot had the this least popular choice as their #1 choice, their #2 choice would move into #1, their #3 into #2, and so forth. This is the ‘instant-runoff’ aspect of the system.<\/p>\n
5. We return to step (2) and repeat the counting and runoffs until we have a winner.<\/p>\n
Zeta frowns at a typo. “Is anyone not at least vaguely comfortable with this explanation before we begin a sample demonstration showing how it works?”
\nGarrison has arrived.
\nYou say, “Hello, Garrison.”
\nSkyler says, “I do have one question, but I think it can wait until after the demonstration.”
\nGarrison waves “Hi”
\nYou say, “We are about to begin a simple demonstration of IRV. I do not anticipate that it will be a problem following along, so do not concern yourself overly with catching up.”
\nBunnyHugger nods.
\nBeltrami nodnods.
\nYou say, “In that case, consider the following simple poll, the choices of which having been determined by my palette choice.”<\/p>\n
<Quote-O-Matic: Zeta>
\nWhat is your favorite color?<\/p>\n
Favorite Color
\nBLACK __
\nWHITE __
\nOFF-WHITE __
\n<Quote-O-Matic Finished><\/p>\n
Zeta taps her wrist and brings up the sample ballot.
\nPing grins.
\nYou say, “Let us say we run an election with this ballot and the votes are received as followed. Voters are named after simple letters. Each row represents a single voter’s preferences.”
\nZeta taps and a complementary screen displays a list of ballots.<\/p>\n
<Quote-O-Matic: Zeta>
\nVoters:
\nA: Black, White, Off-White
\nB: Off-White, White, Black
\nC: White, Off-White, Black
\nD: Off-White, Black, White
\nE: Off-White, White
\nF: White
\nG: Off-White, White, Black
\nH: Black, White
\nI: Black, Off-White
\nJ: Black
\nK: White, Off-White
\nL: Black, White, Off-White
\nM: Black
\nN: Off-White
\n<Quote-O-Matic Finished><\/p>\n
You say, “For example, A’s choices in order of preference are black, white, and off-white. B’s choices are off-white, then white, and then black. And so forth. Counting up the number of #1 votes, we have the following:”<\/p>\n
<Quote-O-Matic: Zeta>
\nR1
\nBlack 6
\nWhite 3
\nOff-White 5<\/p>\n
Total: 14
\nMajority: 8
\n<Quote-O-Matic Finished><\/p>\n
Jaxen nods.
\nYou say, “These numbers are calculated by counting up the #1 votes on the ballots. There are two things to note here: One, if this were first past the post, we would be done at this stage. Black has received the most votes and is therefore the winner under FPTP rules. Two, black has not, however, received the majority of votes. Intuitively, there is reason to believe that white and off-white may have split a high saturation demographic.”
\nYou say, “Under IRV we do not stop until we have someone has received a majority of the #1 picks. Here no choice has reached the cutoff for a simple majority. Therefore, we select the choice(s) who received the least number of #1 votes. In this case that choice is ‘White’. We’re going to eliminate ‘White’ from all the ballots.”
\nYou say, “For the purposes of clarity, I’m going to focus first on the three ballots which have listed ‘White’ as the number one choice. They are:”<\/p>\n
<Quote-O-Matic: Zeta>
\nC: White, Off-White, Black
\nF: White
\nK: White, Off-White
\n<Quote-O-Matic Finished><\/p>\n
You say, “For each, we remove ‘White’ from the listing and are left with:”<\/p>\n
<Quote-O-Matic: Zeta>
\nC: Off-White, Black
\nF: [Empty ballot. Not counted.]
\nK: Off-White
\n<Quote-O-Matic Finished><\/p>\n
You say, “We also eliminate ‘white’ from all other ballots prior to the recount. Before I list the new ballots and the result, does anyone have a question?”<\/p>\n
Skyler does.
\nBunnyHugger says, “I have one.”
\nDragoncat shakes his head.
\nYou say, “Yes, Skyler.”
\nZeta regards him with a glassy, unreadable, red stare.
\nSkyler says, “So…let me see if I understand, from a _voter’s_ point of view here. Voter ‘F’ said only white, and nothing else, and it was first eliminated. The translation we should take from that, if I’m right, is ‘I want White to win. If White doesn’t win, I have no preference whoever does. It no longer matters to me.’ Right? So…”
\nSkyler says, “The ‘Best’ IRV vote is to vote for everyone, basically from ‘Most preferred to least preferred’, until you reach ‘I don’t care about who’s left’?”
\nYou say, “Correct, Skyler. I intended to address that in Q and A, but I am glad you anticipated it.”
\nPing also has a question.
\nPing looks to BunnyHugger, though.
\nYou say, “As a foreshadow however: There is no advantage in IRV to voting for fewer candidates. You should rank as much as you can. Voting for fewer candidates only potential means your preference will not be counted if all your choices are eliminated.”
\nYou say, “BunnyHugger?”
\nBunnyHugger says, “Is there any functional difference between a ballot that lists ‘white, off-white, black’ and one that lists ‘white, off-white’ as initial choices? Because I’m wondering what the point is in listing your last choice as opposed to just leaving it off entirely.”
\nSkyler hmms. “I \/suspect\/ that might be addressed by Zeta running through the example, but we gotta see.”
\nYou say, “Good question. Assuming you rank all candidates, BunnyHugger, in order for your second to last choice to be eliminated, you would have to be in a situation in which only two candidates remained.”
\nBunnyHugger says, “Right…”
\nYou say, “If one candidate has a fewer number of #1 votes at that stage, the other candidate should have a majority. The election should be finished. So no: At a high level, there is no functional difference between selecting the final choice and leaving it blank. I still recommend filling it in for clarity.”
\nYou say, “As an aside at this point, some IRV systems require all voters to rank all available choices. Ours does not.”
\nBunnyHugger nods.
\nYou say, “If that answers the question: Ping.”
\nBunnyHugger says, “Thank you.”
\nPing squeaks, “Does IRV provide a mechanism for expressing a vote like, “I *don’t* want Black to win, but beyond that, I don’t care.”? If so, what would such a vote look like?”
\nYou say, “No.”
\nPing squeaks, “Interesting. Okay. I ask mainly because that particular type of vote seems… rather common, in many RL elections.”
\nPing squeaks, “Particularly after large amounts of negative campaigning.”
\nAli says, “I think such a voter would have to arbitrarily rank everyone, with ‘not that one’ in last place.”
\nYou say, “As a parenthetical: IRV has many advantages over FPTP, but it is not perfect. That’s not just a qualitative opinion: There is an impossibility proof called Arrow’s Impossibility theorem that shows three simple desires one would intuitively want from a voting system – and that it is impossible to satisfy all three.”
\nJaxen nods to Ali.
\nAli says, “They’d express a preference they don’t really have… but that’s okay because they don’t care about that either.”
\nBunnyHugger nods.
\nAustin smiles.
\nPing squeaks, “Perhaps, then, IRV would discourage negative campaigning. Hmmmm.”
\nYou say, “I don’t want to mislead people into thinking that this is a perfect system or infallible. One of the disadvantages as a consequence of its failing is that it is quite good at capturing \/positive\/ opinions. But it does not capture \/negative\/ ones very well.”
\nAli says, “We haven’t really had any. Azure’s been parodying it.”
\nPing squeaks, “Consider my question answered.”
\nYou say, “It’s actually significantly more complicated than that, Ali.”
\nBeltrami blinks.
\nYou say, “If, for example, one wants candidate ‘Beta’ not to win as their prime concern, and one is cognizant that everyone who voted ‘Kappa’ as their #1 has Beta listed as #2, the most important thing may be to vote for ‘Kappa’ in order to avoid their being eliminated – and delivering many #1 votes to Beta.”
\nAli says, “I see. Of course, actually ranking everyone properly by preference without making stuff up always works.”
\nYou say, “Don’t worry about the details of this; the important thing is that it’s potentially very complicated. And in practice, it’s impossible to predict such a sophisticated system of tactical voting without knowledge of the other ballots. The only reason I bring this up is to mention that our system \/does\/ have an option to let people see the current rankings prior to the closing of the poll.”
\nAli thinks.
\nYou say, “This will not be enabled for the mayoral election.”
\nBunnyHugger nods.
\nSkyler nods.
\nYou say, “And the reason is because a sophisticated voter, voting tactically and given knowledge of the current state of the ballot, can vote ‘dishonestly’ about their preferences to skew the results.”
\nBunnyHugger nods sadly.
\nAli says, “Wouldn’t your example, though mathematically sound, be anathema to the voters? Whoever is likeliest to runoff to the hated candidate would be the candidate most like the ‘bad’ one, therefore with the mostsimilarity to them, and therefore the ‘second-most hated’?”
\nSkyler would like to see the example played out.
\nYou say, “Indeed. But their goal is not to see kappa elected, but beta not elected.”
\nAli thinks she has introduced unnecessary complications to this seminar. Sorry.
\nYou say, “Fortunately, without being able to see the current results, one would have to be able to accurately predict the way everyone else is voting. This is not likely and in its absence, one’s best strategy is to vote honestly about one’s preferences.”
\nYou say, “That is the take-away of this aside.”
\nSkyler nods.
\nAli heh. “In short: ‘It doesn’t work, so don’t do that.’
\nPatchO’Black has arrived.
\nYou say, “To return to the example, remember that we’re going to eliminate the least popular choice, ‘white’, from all ballots. I will now redisplay the old ballots for review and the new ones.”
\nPatchO’Black mews, “Hi!”
\nZeta nods to PatchO’Black, “Hello.”
\nAli says, “hi, Patch. Have a seat.”<\/p>\n
<Quote-O-Matic: Zeta>
\nVoters (pre-elimination):
\nA: Black, White, Off-White
\nB: Off-White, White, Black
\nC: White, Off-White, Black
\nD: Off-White, Black, White
\nE: Off-White, White
\nF: White
\nG: Off-White, White, Black
\nH: Black, White
\nI: Black, Off-White
\nJ: Black
\nK: White, Off-White
\nL: Black, White, Off-White
\nM: Black
\nN: Off-White
\n<Quote-O-Matic Finished><\/p>\n
<Quote-O-Matic: Zeta>
\nVoters:
\nA: Black, Off-White
\nB: Off-White, Black
\nC: Off-White, Black
\nD: Off-White, Black
\nE: Off-White
\nF: [Empty ballot. Not counted.]
\nG: Off-White, Black
\nH: Black
\nI: Black, Off-White
\nJ: Black
\nK: Off-White
\nL: Black Off-White
\nM: Black
\nN: Off-White
\n<Quote-O-Matic Finished><\/p>\n
You say, “The second listing is simply a replication of the first with all ‘white’ choices removed.”
\nYou say, “We now do another round of counting #1 votes and see if someone has a majority.”<\/p>\n
<Quote-O-Matic: Zeta>
\nR1 R2
\nBlack 6 6
\nWhite 3
\nOff-White 5 7<\/p>\n
Total: 14 13
\nMajority: 8 7
\n<Quote-O-Matic Finished><\/p>\n
PatchO’Black looks confused.
\nZeta nods, “Regretfully, PatchO’Black, you have arrived in the middle of an information session regarding this election’s new voting system, and I do not have time to provide a full review. Fortunately, a transcript will be posted. Further, you are free to participate in the test votes we’re about to perform. I believe there can still be a degree of edifying value in that activity.”
\nZeta brushes her tail and turns back to the others. “Here in round 2, Off-White has received more than half the remaining votes, and is the winner.”
\nYou say, “In order to keep things simple, this example had only two rounds. In a more complicated situation with more choices we may have continued, eliminating another choice, and so forth until one of the remaining candidates had captured a majority of #1 votes. We’re about to do some real voting, so we may see an example of this.”
\nYou say, “Are there any questions before I introduce the hands-on portion of the session?”
\nBunnyHugger shakes her head.
\nAli sips some water.
\nPing squeaks, “I suppose in some ways this better answers the question of “fewer people disliked this selection” than “more people liked this particular selection”? (the latter being FPTP)”
\nJaxen raises a paw.
\nDragoncat has connected.
\nYou say, “Ping, no. I consider it more that it answers the questions, ‘If one cannot have their first choice, what would they pick as second?'”
\nSally has disconnected.
\nPing apologizes for preempting Jaxen’s pawraise… “Ah.”
\nBunnyHugger says, “Yes, one might *quite like* the top three of ten, or whatever.”
\nDragoncat has disconnected.
\nPing squeaks, “Okay.”
\nYou say, “Two years ago, I received three write-in votes, for example. These votes were effectively thrown away. Under IRV, they would not have been.”
\nYou say, “As I would have been, I believe, the first candidate eliminated.”
\nYou say, “Yes, Jaxen.”
\nJaxen says, “To be clear, is only a single candidate eliminated per round? What if two are tied for the least number of votes?”
\nAli lifts her ears. Didn’t think to ask that.
\nPing hms. “Could that happen without someone else getting more than half the votes?”
\nYou say, “Good question. As there is no fair way to break ties, it was decided that both would be eliminated. This is not as terrible as it sounds at first: If only one choice were eliminated rather than both, and there was still no simple majority winner, then the other choice would likely still be the least popular in the next round and subsequently eliminated.”
\nYou say, “Yes, Ping.”
\nAli says, “Consider Zeta’s example of the split vote, Ping.”
\nPing ahhs. Right, then.
\nAli hm.
\nYou say, “This explanation glosses over some possibilities: For example, if one candidate is eliminated their votes could go to the other unpopular candidate, making them more popular than a third candidate.”
\nZeta makes a cutting motion in the air.
\nAli says, “Which points up a flaw in IRV, doesn’t it?”
\nYou say, “However, these examples, while possible, are somewhat degenerate and again: There is no good way to determine how to resolve a tie.”
\nAli has some suggestions.
\nYou say, “Not directly, Ali, but it is somewhat related to a concept know as the Condorcet Winner.”
\nYou say, “Ali, there are some intuitive ways to resolve the issue but: One, elimination of both candidates is not a bad approach. Amongst other things, it is understandable by everyone, and that’s important. Two, it is easy to implement. Three, in practice it’s a minor concern.”
\nAli nods, and doesn’t disagree with any of those.
\nPing nods.
\nAli is a pragmatic fox.
\nSkyler hmms. “Oh, the demonstration, Zeta?”
\nYou say, “I hope that satisfies. However, even if it does not, concerns of a temporal nature compell me to move on.”
\nAli wasn’t going to spew suggestions about NOW anyway.
\nJustin has arrived.
\nZeta nods. “In addition to the vote.muf program, Master Morticon has been characteristically wise enough to create another program designed to permit the electorate to experiment with the system. This other program is the same code base as vote.muf, but does not spam the MUCK with poll announcements.”
\nBunnyHugger smiles.
\nYou say, “Hello, Justin. We have finished an explanation of the voting systems and are about to conduct a practice poll. I apologize that I cannot offer a review of what has been covered so far, but it will be available as a transcript tomorrow.”
\nJustin nods.
\nZeta turns back to the others and raises a paw, an oddly humanoid gesture. “I have seeded this system with two questions. To make results more realistic, I have included questions on which one might conceivably have an opinion. The first poll is ‘Favorite Genre of Music’. The second is ‘Favorite Planet in the Sol Solar System.’
\nPing grins.
\nYou say, “In a moment, I’m going to provide the command to access the system and ask that those in attendance answer the first question, Favorite Genre of Music, and make a note of their choices. I will leave the poll open for 5 minutes and then close it and we will all examine the results.”
\nYou say, “If we have time and interest we will then answer the second poll. Please do not do so yet.”
\nYou say, “Are there any questions?”
\nBunnyHugger shakes her head.
\nAli produces a notebook.
\nYou say, “The command is ‘votetest’.”
\nYou say, “300 seconds until the poll closes.”
\nAli aw. No jazz.
\n[OOC] Zeta says, “I was pressed for time and did not enable write-ins.”
\nPing squeaks, “For clarification… Does a higher-numbered vote indicate a greater pereference for that, or less?”
\nDragoncat says, “Higher number?”
\nPing squeaks, “1 to 10.”
\nAli says, “First mentioned is higher preference.”
\nYou say, “Good question: One or more choices may be entered, in order of preference. In other words, ‘1’ is the most preferred choice.”
\nPing squeaks, “Oh, the *order*. sorry.”
\nYou say, “Intuitively, remember you’re \/ranking\/ the choices in order of preference.”
\nDragoncat nods to Ping.
\nPatchO’Black wanders off…
\nYou say, “If you ever forget, remember your number one choice comes first.”
\nPatchO’Black has left.
\nPing squeaks, “Right, that’s the key point I’d forgotten. ;)”
\nAli suspects lettering the candidates rather than numbering them may improve that confusion. Maybe.
\nYou say, “15 seconds.”
\nYou say, “It’s a fair point, Ali. Unfortunately, with polls opening soon and MUF’s conversion of letters to subscripts being non-trivial, I don’t think there’s time for Master Morticon to implement the alteration with confidence that it will not introduce regression.”
\nZeta tapes her wrist and closes the topic.
\nAli nods. Hadn’t considered it until seeing Ping’s confusion just now.
\nDragoncat prefers numbers.
\nPing apologizes, she’s bizarrely sleep-deprived from having gotten way too much sleep, recently, and isn’t thinking very clearly.
\nAli pets wizmouse
\nYou say, “I see that four of you have also disobeyed orders and already voted on the second poll. Fortunately, I am not your XO.”
\nYou say, “Regardless:”
\n<Quote-O-Matic: Zeta>
\nFavorite Musical Genre
\nAdded on 01\/31\/12 by Zeta
\nClosed on 01\/31\/12 by Zeta<\/p>\n
vote: Building table…<\/p>\n
Full list of choices:
\n1. Baroque
\n2. Classical
\n3. Metal
\n4. Pop
\n5. Rap
\n6. Raggae
\n7. Rock and Roll
\n8. Romantic
\n9. Techno
\n10. Punk<\/p>\n
CHOICE R1 R2 R3 R4
\nClassical 3 4 5 6
\nRock and Roll 5 6 6 7 <<WON
\nPunk 1
\nMetal 1
\nTechno 2 3
\nBaroque 1
\nPop 1
\nRomantic 1<\/p>\n
TOTAL 13 13 13 13<\/p>\n
You say, “In this example, Rock and Roll won.”
\nBunnyHugger nods.
\nAli says, “So, Punk and Metal had no first-place choices until the third round.”
\nYou say, “It’s also a good example of multiple, unpopular choices being eliminated in round 1.”
\nYou say, “Correct, Ali.”
\nPing’s opinions on music are, evidently, unpopular. \ud83d\ude09
\nYou say, “Another aspect of the system is it’s possible to view anonymized voting cards after the fact. Ideally, this would be unnecessary. But as last time there were accusations of voter fraud, it was felt that transparency was worthwhile at a small potential risk to privacy. The voting cards were as follows:”
\nAli’s, on the other hand, are widely agreed on. Had R&R first, then Classical.
\nAzure puts an arm around Ping, “I know the feeling.”
\nGarrison would have voted for ‘TV THeme Song’ \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n
<Quote-O-Matic: Zeta>
\nHere are the voting cards for topic:
\nFavorite Musical Genre<\/p>\n
1,2,8,9,7,10,6,3,4,5
\n2,1
\n2,7,4,9,8,1,6,5,3,10
\n2,7,6,9
\n4,7,9,6,2,10,3
\n7
\n7,2,4,6,9,1,10,8,3,5
\n7,3,10,2
\n7,4,10,9,8,2,6,3,1,5
\n7,8,4,6,2,1,9,3,5,10
\n8,1,9,3,2,4,7,6,5,10
\n9,10,7,3
\n9,2,7,6,1,4,8,3,10,5<\/p>\n
You say, “The order is randomized.”
\nAli says, “No it isn’t. It’s sorted by preference.”
\nDragoncat says, “Yeah.”
\nPing raspberries Ali.
\nYou say, “Whichever. This is for those who don’t trust Master Morticon’s algorithm to run their own analysis by hand.”
\nAli nods.
\nAli says, “Almost half the voters didn’t do a complete ranking.”
\nBunnyHugger says, “That wouldn’t really prevent ‘fraud,’ would it? I think the concerns in the last election related to whether people were multiple voting, unless I heard wrong.”
\nYou say, “I hope that those displeased with the outcome of the election will have the maturity not to research social choice theory simply to discover a means of analysis which derives a more preferred outcome and protest it into endless drama.”
\nBunnyHugger shakes her head.
\nZeta brushes her tail and says flatly, “But inductive observation of human behavior makes me doubt it.”
\nAli shrugs.
\nPing giggles.
\nYou say, “BunnyHugger, yes. In particular alt-voting did occur. However, not to an extent that would have impacted the results.”
\nAli thinks there is nothing to complain about: the rules are not unduly unfair, and are explained a priori.
\nYou say, “And further, the voting program now checks the alt-list.”
\nAli says, “… there’s a The Alt List?”
\nBunnyHugger says, “The alt list is, I know from testing mine, not infallible, unfortunately.”
\nBunnyHugger says, “Although I had mine corrected when I discovered this.”
\nDragoncat says, “An Alt list?”
\nJustin nods to BunnyHugger. Same issue.
\nDragoncat says, “As in alternative players?”
\nBunnyHugger says, “It’s a property that’s supposed to be on you that lists your alts, viewable only by wizards.”
\nYou say, “Ali, all characters have a hidden preference property visible only to the wizards which lists the alts. It is not, however, ever accessed except when a new alt is made or in the case of someone avoiding a ban.”
\nBunnyHugger nods.
\nAli chuckles.
\nYou say, “In SpinDizzy the philosophy is to err on the side of trust and privacy.”
\nBunnyHugger nods.
\nAustin says, “Primarily, it’s a way of making sure we don’t accidentally idle-purge anyone if, say, they have a character who’s on regularly, or making sure that someone who’s to stay off the muck is in fact staying off.”
\nAli says, “It sounds very much like military or law enforcement DNA records. OFFICIALLY ‘only accessed if necessary’….”
\nYou say, “In this case, the alt-list is checked by a program and not made visible.”
\nAli says, “This tickles my dystopian funnybone.”
\nYou say, “Nonetheless: It isn’t.”
\nDragoncat nods.
\nAustin says, “Well, Ali, in point of fact, the wizards dno’t care who your secret alt is. Or anyone’s secret alt, really. You might be surprised how uninteresting a topic it is.”
\nZeta tail-flicks a shrug. “I trust Master Morticon and the other wizards. Regardless, this isn’t the venue for this discussion. Are there any questions related to IRV or the implementation of the program before we continue with the second poll?”
\nAli says, “Of course. The SED and its head are markedly more honest than real governments.”
\nSkyler says, “Ready, Zeta!”
\nBeltrami frowns at Ali.
\nAli hasn’t got a secret alt. Has only one alt who is known and virtually never used.
\nJustin says, “Onward.”
\nAzure yips, “Ready!”
\nYou say, “Master Morticon’s word is very important to him.”
\nDragoncat has no alts, or secret alts. Has a puppet or two.
\nAli says, “What now, Beltrami? I am dead serious. At least the SED ADMITS they’re an evil megalomaniacal society bent on power.”
\nYou say, “Very well. Moving on: Please vote for your favorite planet. Assuming you haven’t already disobeyed orders and done so.”
\nIn a page-pose to you, Morticon nods.
\nJaxen says, “We are side tracking.”
\nYou say, “The SED is not an evil megalomaniacal society bent on power.”
\nPing squeaks, “Our ability to associate alts is, of course, largely based on users’ willingness to understand and believe our reasons for having an individual’s alts associated with each other – technical purposes only.”
\nSomewhere on the muck, Morticon has connected.
\nBunnyHugger nods.
\nZeta says without a trace of irony, “We are a progressive organization for the purposes of creating a better future of meritocracy. But please use the poll. Jaxen is correct.”<\/p>\n
Azure yips, “May we protest the exlcusion of Ceres, Haumea, Makemake, Eris, and Pluto?”
\nJustin giggles.
\nYou say, “No.”
\nDragoncat says, “Makemake? Ceres?”
\nYou say, “180 seconds.”
\n[OOC] Jaxen says, “Minor Planets.”
\nAli says, “Ceres is the largest body in the asteroid belt, estimated about as large as Pluto.”
\nDragoncat nods.
\nPing giggles.
\nJ.P. has arrived.
\nJ.P. wavies.
\nPyralis looks to Azure, “This is about major league planets. Those little kid planets can stay in the stands!”
\nDragoncat hugs Pyralis.
\nAli chuckles. “I guess that’s why Sedna was left off, too.”
\nBunnyHugger giggles.
\nJ.P. snugs Beltrami!
\nDragoncat says, “But Pluto did overthrow Neptune’s rank in the planetary order.”
\nPyralis eeps! And hugs. Squee!
\nBunnyHugger says, “I would like to campaign for Jupiter on the grounds that Kant thought it was the most likely to have intelligent life on it besides Earth.”
\nChitter says, “No campaigning!”
\nAli says, “It does that every few thousand years.”
\nChitter pokes BunnyHugger!
\nBunnyHugger says, “Ow.”
\nDragoncat nods.
\nMorticon has arrived.
\nAustin smiles.
\nBeltrami waves to Morticon!
\nYou say, “As a parenthetical: My understanding is the final draft of the ballot will be posted soon. I encourage those desiring ‘write-ins’ to check it and add Pluto if necessary. Like these polls, I understand that the mayoral election poll will not be modifiable after it is open, as a courtesy to those who have to vote early.”
\nYou say, “60 seconds.”
\nPing waves to Morticon.
\nDragoncat says, “Looks like your ballot system is working like a charm!”
\nAli says, “Jupiter… is a gas giant! crushing doom! Intellingent life? No way, not there it Kant.”
\nZeta stands on her hind legs and tail-flicks a sharp salute to Morticon. “Sir.”
\nMorticon is just here to observe.
\nAli eeps, grand wizard conjunction!
\nAzure yips, “Balloon folk zipping about inside it?”
\nAzure waves to Morticon cheerilly.
\nBunnyHugger says, “Maybe that’s what he thought, Azure.”
\nBeltrami rocks on her feet.
\nZeta nods and drops to all fours before tapping at her wrist and closing the poll.
\nAli says, “Doubtful, Az. But if there is, I’l gladly shake their… um… greeting appendages.”
\n[OOC] Jaxen says, “Jupiter’s moon Europe is the most likely place to find Non-Earth life in the solar system.”
\n[OOC] Ali says, “Yay water. ^>^”
\nYou say, “Another somewhat dull result:”<\/p>\n
<Quote-O-Matic: Zeta>
\nCHOICE R1 R2
\nVenus 1
\nEarth 6 7 <<WON
\nJupiter 2
\nNeptune 3 3
\nMercury 1
\nMars 1
\nSaturn 1
\nUranus 1<\/p>\n
TOTAL 13 13
\n<Quote-O-Matic Finished><\/p>\n
Austin says, “Are we sure they weren’t voting for earths from different dimensions?”
\nAli says, “I am surprised by the popularity of Neptune.”
\nYou say, “I presume, Austin, they were voting for the best of all possible worlds.”
\nAzure is surprised he’s the only one who ranked mercury first.
\nBunnyHugger bounces.
\nYou say, “But that’s only my most candid opinion.”
\nPyralis did pick mercury, just not first!
\nAli is surprised Azure ranked Mercury first!
\nAli thought Azure might pick Neptune because it is blue.
\nBunnyHugger bounces more.
\nYou say, “He is mercurial.”
\nBunnyHugger seems delighted.
\nAli is surprised she was the only one who #1’d Mars.
\nAzure chuckles, “Why are you happy, Professor BunnyHugger?”
\nBeltrami grins.
\nBunnyHugger says, “Because Zeta is making jokes that delight me.”
\nGarrison chuckles
\nPyralis #1’d Uranus… she’s bored okay?
\nDragoncat thought Ali’d have voted Jupiter #1.
\nChitter flicks his tail.
\nAli says, “Why so, DC?”
\nDragoncat says, “You said you liked it?”
\nYou say, “I do have a sense of joviality as a rhetorical device, BunnyHugger. That I do not express is only testament to a lack of personal interest and and observation of its rather poor applicability. Regardless: I hope these sample polls have been interesting. Are there are specific questions before I open the floor to more general ones?”
\nAli says, “I did? It’s a fine planet. I ranked it 4th.”
\nSkyler says, “I’m good here, Zeta.”
\nBunnyHugger shakes her head.
\nAli says, “Can we see the votes?”
\nYou say, “Very well.”
\nPing footnotes: http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Instant-runoff_voting
\nYou say, “Type votetest, (S)ee results of closed topics, select poll 9, and check See (V)oting Cards, Ali.”
\nYou say, “It should be available to everyone.”
\nAli nods.
\nJaxen nodes to Zeta.
\nYou say, “But for convenience I will replicate the results here.”
\nDragoncat says, “Interesting. So, if voting went a certain way, it’s possible that a entity that did not recieve any votes in the first round could still recieve votes, hmm?”
\nJaxen eats an e. :9<\/p>\n
<Quote-O-Matic: Zeta>
\n1,7,6,5,8,3,2,4
\n3,4,2,1,5,6,7,8
\n3,4,5,6
\n3,4,5,6,2,1,7,8
\n3,4,5,6,2,8,7,1
\n3,4,5,6,8,2,1,7
\n3,4,6,1,2,5,8
\n4,3,6,5,8,1,2,7
\n6,2,3,8,7,1,4,5
\n7,5,4,1
\n8,4,3,7,1,2,5,6
\n8,5,3,1,2
\n8,6,5,7,2,3,4,1
\n<Quote-O-Matic Finished><\/p>\n
Ali nods. “We saw that very thing happen in the music poll, too.”
\nYou say, “Yes, Dragoncat. In fact, they could still win.”
\nYou say, “Say for example, a candidate receives no #1 votes but is #2 for many eliminated candidates.”
\nBunnyHugger says, “In a sample I ran at one point playing with the vote test software, I had one come out so that the winner had no first place votes.”
\nYou say, “In practice, however, it is difficult for a candidate who received no #1 votes in the first round to pull ahead.”
\nSkyler says, “Of course, that scenario is hard to predict, so again, it comes back to one’s genuine preferences.”
\nYou say, “Those who appear as #1s tend to appear as #2s as well.”
\nDragoncat nods.
\nYou say, “As BunnyHugger states, however, it can happen.”
\nAli says, “Interesting. By these criteria, the Condorcet winner might have been Mars instead of Earth.”
\nYou say, “Ali, if there are no other questions, would you like to see an example where IRV does not select the condorcet winner?”
\nPing notices that two voters’ preferences were identical up until the fifth choice. Interesting.
\nAli says, “That’s okay, Zeta. I looked it up when you mentioned it and saw the Wikipedia examples.”
\nJ.P. whispers, “J.P. fuzzles your tail.” to you.
\nAli says, “look again, Ping. FOUR were identical for the first four.”
\nPing squeaks, “Zeta what does the term ‘condorcet winner’ refer to?”
\nYou say, “Ping, let’s say there’s one candidate who wins in a head to head vote against everyone else.”
\nAli chuckles. Hers was the 4,3,6,5 line – flipping pairs of the most popular series.
\nZeta nods. “In other words, say that Master Morticon can beat anyone in this room in an election containing only himself and one other candidate at a time.”
\nPing squeaks, “Ahh, okay. I see.”
\nYou say, “Such a candidate is considered the ‘Condorcet winner’. The term is named after a political philosopher and mathematician who created a voting method to find such a winner.”
\nAzure yips, “And there is a voting system where you do exactly that: pick one of two for each pair drawn from the set of candidates.”
\nYou say, “Charles Dodgson, better known as Lewis Carroll, did as well.”
\nYou say, “One of the ‘failings’ of IRV is that it does not necessarily pick a condorcet winner. Consider the following example:”<\/p>\n
<Quote-O-Matic: Zeta>
\n199 ballots 3 ballots 198 ballots
\n1. Alpha 1. Beta 1. Kappa
\n2. Beta 2. Kappa 2. Beta
\n3. Kappa 3. Alpha 3. Alpha
\n<Quote-O-Matic Finished><\/p>\n
Justin has left.
\nYou say, “Let us examine a head to head competition of the candidates.”
\nPing listens.
\nYou say, “In a run off between just Alpha and Beta, how many votes would each receive? Assume that the ballots accurately represent the preferences of the voters.”
\nZeta brushes her tail with an expression of infinite patience.
\nBunnyHugger says, “Alpha would get 199; Beta 201…?”
\nPing grins. “I think I see where you’re going with this now…”
\nYou say, “Correct.”
\nYou say, “And in a runoff between Beta and Kappa?”
\nSkyler says, “Same.”
\nBunnyHugger says, “Beta 202, Kappa 198.”
\nYou say, “So who is the Condorcet winner?”
\nBigears has arrived.
\nJ.P. snugs Bigears.
\nBigears hugs everybody.
\nBeltrami smiles.
\nYou say, “The Condorcet winner is the one who would win in a head to head competition against everyone else. Hence it is ‘Beta’. However, who is the IRV winner?”
\nBunnyHugger says, “Oh!”
\nBigears looks. “SQUIRREL!” He looks! !@.@!
\nSomewhere on the muck, Sora has connected.
\nJ.P. grins.
\nJ.P. cuddles Bigears and fuzzles fennecears!<\/p>\n
<Quote-O-Matic: Zeta>
\nR1 R2
\nAlpha 199 199
\nBeta 3
\nKappa 198 201
\n<Quote-O-Matic Finished><\/p>\n
BunnyHugger nods. “Kappa.”
\nPing frowns. Her head is spinning a bit, suddenly unable to do simple addition. She’ll revisit the log.
\nAzure noses between Ping’s ears.
\nYou say, “Correct. This is one of the properties of Arrow’s Impossibility theorem that IRV fails: The group as a whole prefers Beta to all other candidates, but they do not win the election. This is a little complicated but there are two reasons not to be concerned by it:”
\nBigears is the omega fennec.
\nMorticon . o O ( I’m just lucky I only had to implement it, not worry about the theory. \ud83d\ude42 )
\nSomewhere on the muck, Elandra has connected.
\nYou say, “One, again, in practice it’s rare. We’ve had two polls tonight with nothing close to this.”
\nJ.P. pets Azure.
\nXor has arrived.
\nAli finds her attention attracted to the theory. \ud83d\ude41
\nJ.P. pounces Xor!
\nXor returns, “Hello!”
\nYou say, “Two, First Past The Post suffers from the same problem.”
\nXor flops!
\nBunnyHugger nods.
\nJ.P. grins and pets.
\nGarrison skunks Xor!
\nJ.P. squirrels Garrison!
\nBigears yrfs, “bagels Garrison.”
\nBigears gahs.
\nXor *bamf* Also, sprawls. Also — …Bigears? Whoa.
\nYou say, “In this instance, for example, it would have outright given the victory to Alpha. Kappa at least better represents the populace’s desires.”
\nAli says, “IRV is better than FPTP across the board.”
\nYou say, “There is at least one notable exception, Ali, but I won’t get into it tonight.”
\nBigears roxs Xor. With a real roc. THUMP.
\nXor splatters.
\nBigears poses derpily to Morti. Derp. 9.6
\nJ.P. eeps?
\nJ.P. fuzzles Bigears.
\nSkyler hmms. “Would I be correct to say that we’ve reached the end of the discussion, minus a couple questions, Zeta?”
\nBigears notes Xor would not be crushed by a roc. Much less noticed as they is a giant bird that preys on elephants and carries them off.
\nGarrison hugs Bigears!
\nBigears hugs Garrison!
\nBigears hugs Xor!
\nYou say, “That is an accurate assessment, Skyler. Are there any questions which do not require social choice theory logic?”
\nBigears fluffs J.P.!
\nAli thinks FPTP is the very worst voting system, and believes it is only in use by tradition in countries directly descended from the UK.
\nXor says, “Well, if it fell on me, I’d splatter.”
\nXor hugs Bigears!
\nAli chuckles.
\nJaxen earperks. Then noses Bigger ears!
\nBigears coldwetnoses Jaxen!
\nJaxen eeps then ruffles the fennec ears. \ud83d\ude42
\nBunnyHugger says, “I have a kind of silly question just to satisfy curiosity. On the highly unlikely chance of an N-way tie at any stage of voting, what does the vote program do?”
\nYou say, “It stops.”
\nMorticon says, “It does?”
\nBunnyHugger says, “So — it declares a tie?”
\nYou say, “I believe, Sir? It does if all that remains is an N-way tie.”
\nYou say, “You can see these results in the best wizard poll, wherein Ping tied with the Wizard of Oz.”
\nBunnyHugger says, “I see, I missed that one.”
\nMorticon says, “Oh! Yes. It basically keeps going until there are no choics left from the cards. No winner is declared, and the polling operator would have to decide the enxt steps.”
\nBigears sits up salutes. Misunderstood and thought the election was happening now. “Adios amigos.”
\nAli heh.
\nBigears is glommed down and swept away by a plastic hippopotamus mouth.
\nBigears has left.
\nPing turns a bit pinkish.
\nYou say, “Hopefully it will not be necessary.”
\nYou say, “Further questions?”
\nBunnyHugger shakes her head.
\nYou say, “And that was a good one, BunnyHugger.”
\nMorticon agrees!
\nBunnyHugger smiles.
\nYou say, “Hearing none: Thank you for the attendance in my presentation. I hope that it has been useful and elucidating. If anything is still confusing, you may page #mail me, and I will do the best I can to clarify anything to the best of my ability as a service of the SED.”
\nZeta nods coolly and blacks the monitors.
\nMorticon adds, “THough bug reports should be sent to me.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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